In Response to Asymco’s excellent post:
One quantitative assumption that you make is the growth rate for Macs to continue at 25%. I believe this is a big sleeper and the rate will increase significantly.
While some of that will come from China, that growth will be partially balanced by lowering growth in the more mature USA and Western Europe consumer markets. However, what is not being factored in here is the growth in the enterprise which was recently reported at 40%. Now, since enterprise was such a small percentage of overall Mac shipments, this growth did little to effect the overall growth. But, if it continues at 40% or higher while the consumer market is leveling, then it will eventually become a significant driver of the Mac growth rate. (Note I am talking here not of sales but of the growth rate of sales.)
I think that this year will be the year in which the Mac really turns the corner in the enterprise. I can see it eventually moving to 40% market share of desktop/laptop computers sold. That would be enormous. Recent Forrester research reports had some extremely telling points. (See below)