Note 7: Why Keepers Are Fools
In another post on this topic, I discussed the human psychology that likely led to Samsung’s exploding battery problems. Here I will discuss another example of that psychological tendency in a related phenomenon – the Note 7 “keepers.”
As wild as it sounds, there are some people who have decided to keep their Note 7, in spite of the recall. Again, this gives us a great look into human psychology. What we see here is a case of:
- “I want this so how can I justify it?”
Philosopher William James once penned that Logic is what one wants to believe. Now this was part of a much longer discussion on the topic that qualified this, but this case shows it beautifully.
Perhaps the strongest proponent of this is that of Mashable contributor Josh Dickey. Here we see a great example of using pseudo-logic to justify a truly illogical choice because he wants to keep his Note 7.
In a post he argues:
can we take a math break for a second?
Because when you do that, owning this supposed ticking time bomb is still statistically less dangerous than the act of getting in your car…
Apple share price has been slammed recently, falling as low as $92.43 last Wednesday. The question for investors is whether this downward trend will continue, if the price will remain range bound as it has for over a year, or if share prices will reverse and continue to appreciate.
I have identified three key factors in the future value of Apple stock. The first article focused on iPhone sales which many see as leveling off in growth, or even declining in the current year. Since this product currently accounts for well over 60% of Apple’s income, this would clearly affect performance. Fears over this are what drove the price down.
The second post focused on how the Services and Other Products categories – particularly the new Apple Watch – will likely drive moderate growth.
In this post we will examine what may be the most important influence on Apple stock price:
- Apple’s forward guidance for the March quarter
Apple’s latest earnings results handily beat Wall street estimates.
This is in contrast to many predictions of a major slowdown in iPhone sales which account for 63% of total revenue.
While recent events have led to a temporary retraction, I believe that the last quarter’s earning showing continued growth has relieved some of the negative pressure on the stock, and recent news of holiday sales will only add to this.
Elsewhere, I have provided a recap of the quarterly earnings.
For some, the more important element was the outlook for the upcoming quarter. The company guided for revenue between $75.5 billion and $77.5 billion, which is in line with analysts’ estimates.
- The big point here is that this posits continued revenue growth, although modest, over last year’s $74.6 billion.
Apple share price has been floundering for almost a year. It first saw yesterday’s (28 Oct. 2015) closing price of $114 back on November 18 of last year.
Yet all measures of performance are up significantly since then as noted in the chart.
The WWDC has come and gone with no announcement of an updated Apple TV nor network streaming. Still, rumors continue that the Apple is waiting to seal deals for the streaming. With all that was announced, it is likely what I discuss here is merely posponed.
As for the Apple TV – Jonny Evans at ComputerWorld writes:
HomeKit support has been present in the Apple TV firmware since v7.0, though Apple hasn’t discussed it.
So this, at least, is going forward.
On June 8 Apple (AAPL) opens its World Wide Developers Conference, a week long event for developers of apps for both the Mac and iOS platforms. The schedule is full of workshops and sessions that instruct software engineers and designers on the technicalities of the trade – how to program Apple products.
No session is more anticipated than the opening keynote address (10 AM Pacific time). Here CEO Tim Cook and cohorts will present several important classes of information:
- Key updates and statistics on the various platforms and products,
- Introduction of new versions of iOS and Mac,
- Possible introduction of important product upgrades.
The first point will eye-popping figures of product sales, usage statistics for various features such as Apple Pay, the number of billions of dollars that have been earned by iOS app developers, and so on. Hopefully, there will be some update on Apple Watch sales, a topic of great interest.
Number two is a longer section which will detail all that is new in the upcoming versions of the two operating systems. There are rumors that new features will be few as Apple may have focused more on improving performance. This is what it did with the Snow Leopard release, one of its most successful. However, there will be new features added to each system, but that is not my focus here.
In this article I will focus on number three. While there might be an upgrade to the Apple Watch – most likely with a new, faster processor, there is another product that I believe will take center stage.
Big data is an emerging technology that is currently receiving a lot of attention. My earlier post gives a primer on some of the terms and issues.
Investors are interested in the potential for appreciation in this market. There are several recent forecasts.
- Global spending on big data by organizations will … [reach] $114 billion in 2018.
- The forecast includes the money spent on internal salaries, professional services, technology services, internal hardware, and internal software.
Wkibon expects growth from about $33 billion this year to $45 billion in 2018, and to $85 billion in 2026. The define Big Data industry as: Continue reading
Today there is a new computing frontier – business analytics.
Some people may be interested in the relationship between our brains and the new Artificial Intelligence that is impacting the business and research worlds.
In an earlier time we used computers to help us perform computations, then to organize data, later to visualize data so that people could better see correlations and make decisions.
Now we are moving into the next generation. Here, analytic programs such as Watson by IBM (IBM), Microsoft (MSFT) Azure Machine Learning, and AWS Elastic MapReduce service by Amazon (AMZN), are sifting through enormous amounts of big data to answer business and scientific questions.
According to Wikipedia:
Analytics is the discovery and communication of meaningful patterns in data.
In the end, all these are sifting through the data trying to abstract out significant relationships between people and/or events.
As I noted in another post, Abstraction is what the brain does.
Some people may be interested in the relationship between our brains and the new Artificial Intelligence that is impacting the business and research worlds. In this post I will describe, very briefly, how brain cells work together to create knowledge.
Neurons – the basic elements of the brain