Understanding Apple: Three Keys To Stock Price – 2. Dark Horses

Apple (AAPL) share price has been slammed recently, falling as low as $92.43 last Wednesday, almost matching the twelve month, intraday low of $92. In spite of the price rising back over $101 on Friday (January 22), the question for investors is whether this downward trend will continue, if the price will remain range bound as it has for over a year, or if share prices will reverse and continue to appreciate.

Obviously, the whole question revolves around growth. will Apple revenue stagnate or even see a decline in its revenue base – as some have suggested?

We have identified three key factors in the future value of Apple stock. The previous article focused on iPhone sales which many see as leveling off in growth, or even declining in the current year. Since this product currently accounts for well over 60% of Apple’s income, this would clearly affect performance.

The question is simple – if iPhone revenues level or decline, can anything else replace that growth?

This article looks at the second key to future stock price – what I call Apple’s Dark Horse elements, the categories Apple dubs in its financial reports:

  1. Services, and
  2. Other Products
  • Note: Most of this analysis will be qualitative. I am not trying to propose any specific numbers. What number I do use are meant to be general examples representative of a range.

Revenues for the categories are highlighted in details from last quarter and fiscal Q1 of 2015 in the images below.

Continue reading

Understanding Apple: Three Keys To Stock Price – 1. Traditional Products

Apple (AAPL) share price has been slammed recently, the price falling as low as $92.43 on Wednesday, almost matching the twelve month, intraday low of $92. In spite of the price rising back over $100 on Friday (January 22) , the question for investors is whether this downward trend will continue, if the price will remain range bound as it has for over a year, or if share prices will reverse and continue to appreciate.

Obviously, the whole question revolves around growth. Can Apple continue to grow at an investor-pleasing rate? Or will it stagnate or even see a decline in its revenue base?

I have identified three key factors in the future value of Apple stock. This article looks at one key to future stock price – Apple’s traditional products, but particularly the iPhone.

The current rout has been caused by fears of dropping iPhone sales. As the iconic smartphone represents more than 60 percent of Apple’s revenue (63% last quarter, 69% calendar Q1 2015) falling sales would definitely curtail overall revenue growth.

  • NOTE: Most of this analysis will be qualitative. I am not trying to propose any specific numbers.

But first…

Before discussing the iPhone in more detail, let’s look at Apple’s other feature products.

Continue reading

Apple Fears Laid To Rest, Free To Rise

Apple’s latest earnings results handily beat Wall street estimates.

This is in contrast to many predictions of a major slowdown in iPhone sales which account for 63% of total revenue.

While recent events have led to a temporary retraction, I believe that the last quarter’s earning showing continued growth has relieved some of the negative pressure on the stock, and recent news of holiday sales will only add to this.

Recap

Elsewhere, I have provided a recap of the quarterly earnings.

December Quarter

For some, the more important element was the outlook for the upcoming quarter. The company guided for revenue between $75.5 billion and $77.5 billion, which is in line with analysts’ estimates.

  • The big point here is that this posits continued revenue growth, although modest, over last year’s $74.6 billion.

Continue reading

How I Got a New MacBook Pro for $325

[Update: The Price has come down dramatically and the newer version of the SSD I used is available for only $243]

How I Got a New MacBook Pro for $325 [$243]

Well, let’s start off by getting this straight – it was NOT a brand new MBP, but it sure does feel like it is.

I have a 2010, almost top of the line MBP – 15”, 2.66 GHz Intel Core i7, NVIDIA GeForce GT 330M 512 MB, and the matte display. I bought near the top because I do a lot of serious photography (have had a few exhibitions) and a little bit of video, and I need the processing power to do this. (You can see some of my work here, and event photos here.) I have since maxed the memory out to 8 GB.

The Problem

The system ran like a dream and I have been very happy with it, (Actually, the graphics card had problems stemming from the Nvidia processor, but Apple replaced it for free – twice!)

Everything was fine as I upgraded with every new OS X release. Snow Leopard in particular was a great release, with space and performance improvements. Since then, however, every release has bought a bit of a slowdown until Yosemite which reduced my former zippy performance to crawl.

Running an application was fine, but if I had several open, then switching between apps would be painful. In particular, MS Word would hang for sometimes a couple of minutes if I had not used it for a while. Then it would hang again when I tried to do a save. Just opening System Preferences could take a minute or two.

  • The computer was becoming close to unusable.

Continue reading

Economic Resonance: A theory for maximizing growth

Note: This paper is in progress and will take a few weeks to complete

Introduction

The economy of the country is an aggregate of the economic activity of the various components: corporations, public sector, small businesses, families and individuals. While the specific objective of a capitalist corporation is to maximize return to its shareholders, clearly most companies do best when the overall system is maximized.

This paper will introduce a concept we call Economic Resonance that shows that the overall economy works best when in a state of “harmony,” and that it can be negatively affected when  accumulation by one sector is taken to an extreme. We will show that the when a balance amongst sectors is achieved, an Economic Resonance occurs that maximizes growth and benefits for all sector.

resonance

Resonance

More –>

Note: This paper is in progress and will take a few weeks to complete

— Comments Appreciated —


Take privacy poll


Elegant, Handcrafted, Genuine Leather

SmartPhone Holster

Soon for iPhone 6 Plus!

delQuindio_productpic_estuches-15363b

Thank you!


————————————————————————————————————–

Free Short Story!

The Room
“Jenni Plochka?” the worn woman in a pink bathrobe read the card in a harsh, tobacco and booze voice. The blue “Vacancy” flashed through her cigarette smoke. She frowned suspiciously. “Don’t get many BMWs here.” “Just wanna crash. Gotta bed?” “OK. But we paintin’ and wirin’, so th’only room is an old one at the end.” [READ MORE…]
YA EN ESPAÑOL: LA HABITACION
MOST MAGYARUL: A SZOBA

Histoire Libre:  La Chambre d’Hôtel