Computing Estimated Sales for iPhones of Fiscal Q1 2015

We are attempting here to estimate the total revenue from iPhone sales for the holiday quarter 2014 (Apple’s fiscal Q1-2015). Obviously, we can only estimate based on certain assumptions. Some of these come from news reports, others are our own.

In order to compute the iPhone revenue for any given period, we need two thing:

  1. Number of units sold
  2. Average Selling Price (ASP)


In the Seeking Alpha article, we show that analysts are predicting as high as 72 million iPhones will be sold this quarter. So here we will use figures ranging from 58 million units to 72 million units.


The ASP estimates are a lot more difficult to compute than units sold. To do so, we need to know two different distributions:

  1. Distribution of memory configurations for each model.
  2. Distribution of models sold.

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Apple: Value of the UAL deal more than the $17 million

United Airlines has just announced that it will purchase 23,000 iPhone 6 Plus smartphones from Apple for use by flight attendants. This will be a huge win for Apple.

Apple and IBM just announced the first round of MobileFirst apps from their partnership, including 2 designed for airlines. These are not the focus of this purchase, however. It seems that United has its own apps slated for the release.O-23829+PR_Ex-Newswire_2800x1920


Sam Risoli, United’s senior vice president of inflight services: “iPhone 6 Plus will enable them to deliver an even higher level of flyer-friendly service and will offer our flight attendants simple, one-touch access to valuable work information, enabling them to better serve our customers.”

Assuming that UAL purchases the 64 GB model, which retails for $849, and they get a $100 discount, then this would be a $17.2 million deal for Apple.

But the sale is only a portion of the benefit to Apple. There is an even bigger value in this deal.

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iPad in Education : Needs to step up its game

Financial Times reports:iu-2

Apple has lost its longstanding lead over Google in US schools, with Chromebook laptop computers overtaking iPads for the first time as the most popular new device for education authorities purchasing in bulk for students.

Google shipped 715,500 of the low-cost laptops into US schools in the third quarter, compared with 702,000 iPads, according to IDC, the market research firm.

While price is part of the issue here, a very real problem for the iPad is that, like its sister product the iPhone, each device is limited to one user. In Apple’s iOS, there is no facility for multiple users to have separate logins to a device.

Nowhere is this more of a problem than in education. Here a device is used by multiple people in the course of each day, and it would be beneficial to have individual logins so that a user can instantly login to a system wide account.

Mac Daily News reader bmd0019 comments:

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Gas prices to boost consumer electronics spending

It is hard to find statistics on the average per vehicle consumption of gasoline is in the USA. The last figures I saw were about 700 gallons per year. If that is down somewhat since the recession I think we can work on a figure of say 680 gallons per vehicle per year. This means that a two-car family will see 1360 gallons per year.

Prices have fallen close to one dollar of late. This means that your average 2-car family is seeing an addition  of over

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Tokaji Wine

This post is about a technology far older than computers – the making of Tokaji wine. It is an article I wrote several years ago.


Tokaj Aszú Wine


“Tokaj Aszú is more than wine, because when you first encounter it, it is so much more than you had ever expected!”

Janos Pogacsas – vintner

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Apple Pay – Superficial Critiques

I really do not like to get snarky, but sometimes I see blog posts that are so superficial that I cannot help but be a little testy.

Case in point Apple Pay Has Finally Arrived! Great – But Here Are 7 Reasons It Won’t Be A Slam-Dunk Success by Robert Hof, in Forbes.

First – I totally agree with Hof when he writes

it’s apparent that Apple Pay is far from a guaranteed success.

This definitely is true. No one can predict with surety two basic factors:

  1. Will it work properly?
  2. Will the public accept it?

Typically, Apple’s products and services work pretty well, but there have been some notable exceptions. The move from .mac to was a tremendous mess, and the introduction of Maps seriously flawed. Any system failure even vaguely approaching those will be a disaster. This is people’s credit cards and payments, not simply directions to the nearest movie theater.

As for number two, Apple seems to have a really refined system, and if it works as effortlessly as in Apple’s demo, it will certainly be the easiest method of paying yet available. A simple swipe of your iPhone or Apple Watch by the NFC reader while holding the home button (on the iPhone) and you are done.

But none of this is guaranteed. That is the nature of any business, especially one that is creating a whole new product.

But Hof goes on to list seven important areas where Apple Pay is lacking.

1 –You can’t use Apple Pay unless you buy an iPhone 6 or 6 Plus

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